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Metro Vancouver home sales set or neared historic records in 2021 and 2022 on both ends of the spectrum.

Sales activity hit a record high in March of 2021 and closed 2022 near historic lows after accounting for

typical seasonal variation.

The key economic variable most responsible for this oscillation between extremes has been the spike in

mortgage rates, as a result of the Bank of Canada rapidly raising the policy interest rate to quell inationary

pressures not seen in the country in more than thirty years.

At the time of publication, ination remains stubbornly high, despite the Bank of Canada’s historically

monumental eorts to bring ination back to their preferred target range of between one and three per

cent. Largely because of this, mortgage rates are expected to remain higher than market participants had

been used to in recent times.

Historically, the data indicate that when mortgage rates rise rapidly, sales activity in Metro Vancouver has

tended to slow considerably and can take upwards of 24 months to recover to levels seen before the

tightening cycle began.

Today’s consensus view among many economists and professional forecasters is that the Bank of Canada

is at (or very near) the peak of the current interest rate tightening cycle. Predictions of mortgage rates

falling precipitously are few, if any, and it is largely against this backdrop that the Real Estate Board of

Greater Vancouver (REBGV) forecasts home sales activity to remain below the levels seen in 2021, and

roughly in-line with 2022 gures across product types.

Sales across Metro Vancouver are expected to reach approximately 28,500 in 2023. This represents a 2.6

per cent decrease over the 29,261 sales in 2022.


In percentage terms, rapidly escalating mortgage rates haven’t tended to impact prices as negatively in

Metro Vancouver as they have sales activity, historically speaking.

It was only the tightening cycle of the early 1980s, which resulted in a fairly signicant price correction

in the Metro Vancouver market. Nearly all other historical tightening cycles in Canada yielded more modest

declines in prices in the region. Interestingly, a few tightening cycles were even associated with price

escalation; a somewhat counterintuitive result that is nonetheless a veriable fact of the historical record.

So far, the current cycle has resulted in prices declining roughly 10% from the beginning of the cycle, with

the pace of decline beginning to show signs of slowing.

A key factor that has underpinned prices in the region over the last 40 years has been the steady population

increase in Metro Vancouver and surrounding areas. Despite the well-publicized challenges of housing

aordability in this region, the amount of people who continue choosing to reside here represent an

important source of demand pressure that continues to push up against a supply of homes that remains

scarce, in relative terms.

With the federal government recently announcing higher immigration targets between 2023 and 2025,

and with the best estimates of future population growth available suggesting BC and the Vancouver

region will continue growing, demand pressure is unlikely to abate signicantly, particularly over the

long term.

Reconciling this long-term outlook with the near-term, the rapid rise in mortgage rates over the past year

has reduced purchasing power and pushed many potential market participants to the sidelines. As the

real estate market continues to adjust to the higher mortgage rate environment, it is likely that more

buyers and sellers will step back into the market.

  

Against this counter-balancing backdrop of decreased market activity and purchasing power, as well as

a continued imbalance between housing supply and demand in the region, REBGV forecasts Metro

Vancouver homes prices to end 2023 up slightly compared to the 2022 year-end gures.

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New property listed in Granville, Richmond

I have listed a new property at 6491 CHELMSFORD ST in Richmond. See details here

Happy New Year to all . Start your year off with a custom built home with the finest and most unique designs and finishings money can buy. Offering 5 bedrooms 3.5 Bths 2 Family Rooms, Formal living Room with vaulted ceilings and 360 degree gas fireplace, Formal Dining Room and a Massive entertainment size kitchen with eating area. Gorgeous custom glass center staircase, Skylights throughout offering a tonne of natural light and the entire house is surrounded by one of the most lush gardens and beautiful private cedar hedges . The private backyard offers over 1200sqft of custom paved patio plus a raised deck and built in BBQ. Meticulously maintained over the years with New windows and sliding doors(2010),New roof(2017),Hot water tank(2014)Located in one of the most prestigious neighbourhood

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I have sold a property at 406 1551 MARINER WALK in Vancouver

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GOOD MORNING GRANVILLE ISLAND! Wake up every morning to an abundance of sun and the water at your feet. Smell the aroma of all the restaurants at your door step from this beautiful 2bdrm/ Penthouse. Move right in to this stylishflat just in time for SUMMER. This is one of the most desirable buildings in False Creek and was fully Rainscreened in 2004. the Lease has been Prepaid until 2046 with the City of Vancouver. Don't Miss Out on this Gem! Priced to Sell! Sundays public open cancelled!!!!!

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I have sold a property at 8191 LUCAS RD in Richmond

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DON'T MISS OUT on one of the rare West facing homes on this lovely beautiful tree lined street in one of the most desirable and safe neighborhoods, close to good schools, recreation facilities and city center. Surrounded by multi milliondollar homes, hold it, rent it, live in it or build your dream home on this 67'x118' lot with private cedar hedge in the back. A great investment !!! First showing Sunday April 3rd 2-4pm.

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I have sold a property at 108 8720 NO 1 RD in Richmond

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PRICED TO SELL!!! Rarely available 1477 sqft 2 bdrm+den (including enclosed solarium), Updated kitchen and appliances, So much closet, storage and space you can move your whole house and family. Don't miss this opportunity for comfortableliving. Please note: Strata fees also include heat and hot water, no utility bill. Quick possession available. OPEN HOUSE SUNDAY MARCH 6, 201 2-4PM. 1. Unique unit in "New Phase" building with INSUITE LAUNDRY.

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I have sold a property at 4180 WELWYN ST in Vancouver

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Deal of the month! Whether you are a first timer or a seasoned investor this is the deal for you. Almost new townhome with top finishings, quartz counters, SS appliances, engineered H/W, tankless hot water system, high end energy efficientfurnace & more. 2 bdrm & bath up & a 3bdrm mortgage helper down. Rental suite can rent for $1500/mth close to everything, schools, transit, shopping. Do the math, this is a great deal! Accepted offer court date 06/26/14.

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